In Vino Veritas: The Future of Wine & Climate Change in Ontario
I did my Masters at a design school that focuses on innovation and strategic foresight (i.e., futures thinking). One of the requirements to graduate is to produce a Major Research Project - something akin to a “thesis”. Most people in my program wrote their major research project on something that could advance them in their careers...like the future of AI, the future of work, or the future of healthcare. Me… I saw this as an opportunity to dedicate 6 months to something I've always wanted to do but never had the time for. I knew climate change would be a big theme to explore, and have always been fascinated by the chemical-meets—ancestral art of grape growing and wine production.
Around this time, I read that Champagne vines were being transplanted to the UK due to climate warming, challenging the old adage of "it’s only Champagne if it comes from the region". I thought: well... can it still be considered “Champagne” then, or is it now just "sparkling wine"?
Vintners (winegrowers) are no strangers to dealing with climate change - their whole livelihood depends on it! It’s the increasingly rapid change of pace and intensity of climate change that is a problem. That's when it hit me - the lightbulb / Eureka moment - winegrowers are futurists. They have to think 10+ years in advance because that’s how long it takes to produce a single good vintage. If one of the world’s most reputable wine regions (Champagne) is being uprooted to a cooler-climate region, will the rest of the world follow suit? Think about Tuscany - not just the agricultural region, but the Tuscan people. Their pride, joy, and general way of living are founded in wine culture. This is a huge disruption. Are all the vines going to the UK, or is there an opportunity for Canada to throw its hat in the race?
Facts:
Ontario is a cold-climate wine producer. Currently, not a very reputable one. Sure, we have some gems that come out of Niagara and Prince Edward County… but we are very much considered small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.
Now, let’s think about this from a futurist’s perspective:
Ontario has available land, good enough soil, and the latitude to potentially be a great host for prime grape growing conditions within the next 20 years. What if Ontario became the world's top wine producer by 2050? And along the way, wouldn’t it be sweet if we became pioneers in agricultural resilience by leveraging regenerative land practices, too?
My major research project is basically a 35-page pitch to use available greenspace in Ontario to grow grapes. I take a deep dive into the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political implications of this possible future.
The report was written in 2019. Four years later, the research is still relevant, although likely not shocking to an expert in the agriculture or wine space. I believe the true value of this report is bringing awareness to the "3 Horizons Model". I came up with the insights on my own while I was writing the report back in 2019 - but it's actually meant to be a generative and participatory tool. This means, if I had more time while I was writing it, I would have held a group workshop with wine and agriculture experts to generate expert-informed future visions and strategies to bring it to life.
Talk about a dream workshop.
So here it is - flip through it. Send it along to anyone that might be interested. I would LOVE to facilitate a workshop like this. Let’s make it happen!
Cheers!
Milena
